More teachers and more deaths: 2020 employment projections

Each year in Australia, the Department of Employment   produces
employment

projections
by industry, occupation and region for the upcoming five
years, the latest being the five years to November 2020. These
projections are produced using detailed data from the ABS Labour Force
Survey.

 

In the

2016 update
released last Friday, total employment is predicted to
increase by 989,700   (or 8.3%) over the five years to November
2020. Over that time period the DoE projects
that employment will increase in 16 of the 19 broad industries, with
declines in employment projected for Agriculture, Forestry and
Fishing  , Mining   and Manufacturing  .

 

Here is a brief summary of the most recent DoE
projections: 

  1. #1 growth industry continues to be Health
    Care and Social Assistance
     : HCSA
    is projected to make the largest contribution to employment growth
    (increasing by 250,200). Factors contributing to this strong
    projected growth include the implementation of the National
    Disability Insurance Scheme, Australia’s ageing population, and
    increasing demand for childcare and home based care services.
    Employment growth in this industry is likely to favour part-time and
    female workers.  
     
  2. #2 growth industry: Professional,
    Scientific and Technical Services
     
    is projected to increase total employment by 151,200 (or 14.8%) over
    the five years to November 2020. Although the passing of the
    resources boom is expected to dampen employment growth in the
    Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services  sector, which
    has increased by 29.1% over the past five years to 308,100, strong
    housing construction activity and infrastructure investment and a
    positive contribution from the lower Australian dollar are expected
    to enable the sector to increase employment by 60,100 (or 19.5%)
    over the five years to November 2020.  
     
  3. Historically low interest rates and lower
    AUD$ helps tourism
     : Retail
    Trade   (up by 106,000 or 8.4%) and Accommodation and Food
    Services  (up by 98,800 or 12.0%) will both benefit from these
    trends over the next five years. The Cafes, Restaurants and
    Takeaway Food Services   sub-sector is expected to lead the way in
    employment growth creating 84,300 jobs (or up 14.9%). In Retail
    Trade, employment growth is expected to be particularly strong in
    the Hardware, Building and Garden Supplies   Retailing sector
    over the five years to November 2020 (up by 14,300 or 15.6%).  
     
  4. Construction industry bounces back from
    mining slowdown
     : Construction
    industry employment is projected to grow by 87,000 (or 8.3%) over
    the five years to November 2020. Following several years of subdued
    growth, employment in Construction has increased by 69,400 (or 7.1%)
    over the past three years, against the backdrop of a strong rise in
    residential building construction and historically low interest
    rates, both of which are likely to continue to support growth in the
    industry into the period ahead.  
     
  5. Motor Vehicle manufacturing shutdown leads
    Manufacturing jobs decline
     :
    Employment in the industry projected to decline by 45,700 (or 5.3%)
    over the five years to November 2020. This decline is expected to be
    primarily driven by a projected fall of 27,500 jobs (or 58.3%) in
    Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing  , following
    the announced plant closures by Ford, Holden and Toyota.  
     
  6. Mining jobs decline set to continue  :
     The fall is projected to be 31,900 jobs (or 14.1%) over the five
    years to November 2020. After recording extremely strong employment
    growth over much of the past decade, employment in the industry has
    declined by 45,900 (or 16.9%) over the past two years, driven by
    weakening growth in demand from China and cost cutting by firms in
    response to a fall in the price of commodities.  
     
  7. The Internet is not killing real estate
    agencies
     : The Property Operators
    and Real Estate Services sub-sector is predicted to grow by 23,400
    jobs (or 13.5%) over the five years to November, 2020.  
     
  8. A lot more teachers required  :  
    The Education and Training sector will
    exceed 1 million employed for the first time. The largest growth in
    actual jobs will come in the School Education sub-sector (49,100
    extra jobs) while the highest percentage growth will come in the
    Adult, Community and Other Education sub-sector (up 18.8% or 30,700
    jobs).  
     
  9. More deaths good for jobs  :
    The Funeral, Crematorium and Cemetery Services sub-sector is
    expected to increase total employment by 700 jobs (or 16.3%) in the
    next five years.
 

Share of projected employment growth, by industry* –
five years to November 2020  

 


CLICK TO ENLARGE  

 

*   ‘Other’ consists of Administrative and Support Services; Rental, Hiring
and Real Estate Services; Other Services; Arts and Recreation Services;
Information Media and Telecommunications; Wholesale Trade and
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services. Agriculture, Forestry and
Fishing; Mining and Manufacturing are excluded from the chart as they
are not projected to grow over the five years to November 2020.

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